US-Israel strike on Iran could push oil past $100
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- U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran, prompting concerns of retaliation that could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran produces just over 3 million barrels of oil per day, making it the fourth‑largest OPEC producer and a key supplier through the Hormuz strait.
- Bob McNally warned that crude futures could rise $5‑$7 per barrel at the market opening, and that a prolonged Hormuz closure would trigger a global recession.
- Kpler data show that about 14 million barrels per day—roughly a third of world seaborne crude—flow through the Strait, with three‑quarters destined for China, India, Japan and South Korea.
- Matt Smith reported that more than 20 million barrels of Gulf crude were loaded for export on the day of the attack, and some tankers were already diverting around the strait.
- Kevin Book noted the U.S. could tap its 415 million‑barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve if oil prices spike, but a full Hormuz crisis could outstrip those offsets.
Why it matters: The risk of a Hormuz shutdown could push crude prices above $100, hurting global economies while benefitting oil producers and insurers who can raise rates; the U.S. may need to draw on its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to cushion the shock.
