Trump and Xi Purges Leave U.S.-China Relations Unstable
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- Trump and Xi met at a May summit in Beijing and agreed to pursue a "constructive relationship of strategic stability," yet cooperation between Washington and Beijing is now "more challenging and precarious than ever" per the analysis.
- Trump's Department of Government Efficiency purged government workers en masse, demoted dozens of generals, and forced hundreds of diplomats into early retirement or termination, prioritizing loyalty over expertise.
- Xi's anti-corruption campaigns have gutted the military command: 61% of officers purged through February held key operational roles, and the Central Military Commission has been reduced to just two members — Xi and General Zhang Shengmin.
- China's foreign-policy leadership has been hollowed out: Foreign Minister Qin Gang disappeared in mid-2023, becoming the shortest-serving chief diplomat in PRC history, and his likely successor, Liu Jianchao, was detained in 2025.
- The U.S. National Security Council has been "rendered largely defective" by changes from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also serves as national security advisor but is reportedly consumed by State Department and Venezuela duties.
- Counterpart identification has collapsed on both sides: Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun has not been appointed to the CMC despite holding the post since 2023, while U.S. trade interlocutors are unclear among Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Jared Kushner.
- Taiwan captures the resulting incoherence: Trump called a $14 billion U.S. arms package to Taipei "a very good negotiating chip" while the administration continues alliance-like training and weapons transfers, leaving Beijing unable to trust any negotiated outcome.
Why it matters: Both governments have stripped the expertise and bureaucratic buffers that historically prevented U.S.-China crises from escalating, so neither side now knows who speaks for the other or whether private commitments will hold — turning manageable disputes over Taiwan and trade into triggers that two nuclear-armed powers cannot reliably de-escalate.
