NI Economy Outpaces UK Average Since Brexit
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- Northern Ireland's economy grew 11.5% in real terms from the 2016 referendum to 2023, outpacing the UK national average of 8.7% on the ONS regional GVA measure, though in the immediate 2021–2023 implementation period NI's 4.4% growth lagged the UK average of 4.7%.
- NI payrolls have grown nearly 10% since 2021 per HMRC data versus a UK average of around 7%, and NI manufacturing output surged 9% in the last year while UK-wide industrial production stayed flat.
- Small businesses reliant on Great Britain supply chains are absorbing the friction: Larne garden centre owner John Shannon was hit with a £387 "export charge" to bring in roses from GB and now drives a van to England to pick up loads himself because hauliers refuse the paperwork.
- Food manufacturer Deli Lites in Warrenpoint won significant new retail contracts after Brexit made it riskier to ship short-life products across the "sea border," with owner Brian Reid saying the firm "picked up a number of contracts" by becoming a local supplier on the island of Ireland.
- Economy Minister Caoimhe Archibald argues dual market access is working, noting that NI exports to the EU have risen more than 10% since the Windsor Framework took effect in March 2023 while British exports to the EU have fallen more than 16%.
- Business services — a sector not touched by NI's special Brexit deal — expanded 24% in real terms over the past decade versus a UK average of 15%, anchored by global law firms and banks including Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer and Citi opening Belfast operations centres.
Why it matters: The headline-grabbing "dual market access" deal is real but is only part of the story: NI's 11.5% growth since 2016 also reflects a delayed catch-up from a deeper post-2008 recession and a 24% boom in business services that has nothing to do with the Windsor Framework. The losers are small GB-dependent importers like Shannon eating £387 charges; the winners are local manufacturers like Deli Lites winning contracts retailers can no longer easily fill from Britain.
