Group of Six expert picks 2026: Which non-Power Four team will crash the College Football Playoff party
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- CFP rules changed so that Power Four conference champions now automatically qualify alongside a potential top-12 Notre Dame, leaving just one guaranteed berth for the Group of Six after Tulane and James Madison both crashed last year's bracket.
- Boise State is the consensus pick, with five of six experts choosing the Broncos to win the new-look Pac-12 behind quarterback Maddux Madsen, though they open the season against Oregon.
- North Dakota State, in its first FBS season, received an NCAA waiver to the two-year probation rule granting Year 1 bowl eligibility, and one expert projects the Bison to beat UNLV in the Mountain West title game.
- UNLV under new coach Dan Mullen benefits from the Mountain West losing its historically strongest programs to the Pac-12 in realignment, widening the path to a conference title.
- South Florida under first-year coach Brian Hartline has a friendly schedule, but lost most of its key offensive players to Auburn and will likely need an undefeated season to land the G6 bid.
- A 2025 coaching carousel brought new head coaches to both 2024 CFP entrants plus American Conference heavyweights South Florida, North Texas, and Memphis.
Why it matters: The tightened CFP structure means a Group of Six team now needs a near-flawless résumé to reach the playoff field — and the source notes USF would likely need to go undefeated to qualify. The coaching turnover at last year's G6 playoff teams (Tulane, James Madison) and major American Conference programs reshuffles the pecking order, while Boise State's five-expert consensus signals the Pac-12's transition is making it the most likely G6 pipeline.
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