Trump's Korea Drill Cut Rattles Japan, Taiwan, India
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- Trump cut back military exercises with South Korea last week, describing them as hostile to Pyongyang, in a bid to restart talks with Kim Jong Un — a move that drew a frosty response from Pyongyang and a volley of ballistic missiles fired off its east coast on Thursday.
- Japan is bracing for Trump to demand a sharp hike in payments for hosting US forces and could see the October Keen Sword drills wielded as leverage, with the USS George Washington already redeployed to the Middle East to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln.
- Taiwan expects Washington to break up a $14 billion arms sales package into smaller chunks ahead of Trump's summit with Xi Jinping next month, though a US Navy aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait on Friday to signal commitment to a 'free and open Indo-Pacific.'
- India has grown 'very, very cautious' about long-term defense deals with Washington, exasperated by Trump's tariffs, his claims of mediating an India-Pakistan ceasefire, and the Pentagon's June decision to rename Indo-Pacific Command to Pacific Command.
- Trump is frustrated by allies' failure to support his war with Iran and has made clear they must spend more on their own defense, according to a White House official, with one analyst warning the Korea decision 'reinforces President Trump's transactional view of foreign affairs.'
Why it matters: Allies that have anchored US strategy in Asia for decades are now publicly hedging: India is pulling back on long-term defense commitments, Japan is bracing for surprise cost hikes on its $20+ billion host-nation arrangement, and Taiwan expects a $14 billion arms package to be sliced into pieces to appease Beijing. With the only forward-deployed US carrier in Asia diverted to the Iran war, deterrence against China is visibly thinner at exactly the moment Xi and Kim are testing the limits of US attention.
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