Oil Rises on U.S.-Iran Optimism Despite Iran License

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- Oil futures rose slightly Tuesday with Brent crude up 0.36% to $78.18/barrel and WTI up 0.45% to $74.19/barrel, clawing back after overnight losses triggered by the Treasury's Iranian oil license
- U.S. Treasury issued a 60-day general license authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian crude to the U.S. with dollar-denominated payments, expiring August 21
- Trump deflected concerns that Iran would funnel oil profits into rebuilding its military, telling reporters Iran is 'supposed to use money to buy food' and claiming the country purchases corn and soybeans 'exclusively' from the U.S.
- VP JD Vance said there has been 'great progress' in talks held in Switzerland, even as Iran declared over the weekend it had closed the Strait of Hormuz — a claim U.S. Central Command publicly contradicted
- Citi Research's Scott Chronert told CNBC's 'Squawk Box Asia' that oil trading patterns show markets are 'increasingly confident' the conflict is nearing its end, and the 'energy price overhang with its inflation connotation should be lessening in the weeks and months to come'
Why it matters: The Treasury's 60-day license is the first U.S. authorization of Iranian crude imports in years, and Trump's coupling of those sales to U.S. agricultural exports gives Washington a short-term leverage window expiring August 21. For markets, Citi's Chronert says the energy-driven inflation pressure should now ease, meaning Brent at $78.18 reflects a market betting the conflict's tail risk is fading.
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