NBA player prop picks, odds: Three best 2026 NBA Finals prop bets for Knicks vs. Spurs, Game 5
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- Victor Wembanyama finished with 24 points and 13 rebounds in Wednesday's 107-106 loss despite San Antonio's 29-point blown lead, and the SportsLine Model projects him for 12.7 rebounds in Game 5 (over 11.5) after he hit at least 12 boards in two of his past four meetings with New York.
- Stephon Castle played just 26 minutes in Game 4 due to foul trouble and shot 2-of-7 from the field, but Larry Hartstein projects him over 15.5 points, noting he made all eight of his free throws and is 16-6 to the over in the playoffs.
- Karl-Anthony Towns recorded 13 points and 10 rebounds in 26 minutes despite early foul trouble in Game 4, has posted double-digit rebounds in three of four meetings with San Antonio, and is projected for 29.1 combined points + rebounds (over 27.5).
- The Spurs enter Game 5 as 5.5-point home favorites with their season on the line after Wednesday's collapse in New York.
- The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, enters the 2026 NBA Finals on a 26-10 (72%) run on top-rated NBA spread picks this season.
Why it matters: Game 5 is elimination for San Antonio after the 29-point blown lead in Game 4, and the SportsLine Model — on a 26-10 (72%) spread-pick run this season — backs three overs: Wembanyama rebounds (12.7 vs. 11.5), Castle points (over 15.5), and Towns points + rebounds (29.1 vs. 27.5). The model is leaning into Spurs players' production even as oddsmakers still list San Antonio as 5.5-point home favorites.
