What happened in this Sports story?

SportsLine's computer model — upgraded for 2026 to better weight transfer-portal talent — projects Penn State to beat Marshall 37-12 in Matt Campbell's debut as Nittany Lions head coach, with Penn State (-23.5) the value against the spread.

What is a key fact in this story? (1)

**Penn State** is projected to beat Marshall 37-12 by SportsLine's model, which simulated every FBS game 10,000 times, making the Nittany Lions (-23.5) the value against the spread with the Under (52.5) on the total.

What is a key fact in this story? (2)

**Matt Campbell** makes his Penn State debut after leaving Iowa State, bringing a couple dozen Cyclones via the transfer portal including quarterback Rocco Becht; more than half the roster is portal-built.

College football score predictions for Week 1, 2026: Computer backs Penn State (-23.5) against Marshall — SkimNews

By CBS Sports · Summarized & edited by Kapil Samant · 2026-09-05

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Penn State is projected to beat Marshall 37-12 by SportsLine's model, which simulated every FBS game 10,000 times, making the Nittany Lions (-23.5) the value against the spread with the Under (52.5) on the total.
Matt Campbell makes his Penn State debut after leaving Iowa State, bringing a couple dozen Cyclones via the transfer portal including quarterback Rocco Becht; more than half the roster is portal-built.
Marshall went 5-7 last season and enters with unresolved questions on the offensive line and defense, which the model cites as the basis for the lopsided projection.
SportsLine's model is on a 32-19 run on top-rated college football money-line picks since the 2024 season and was upgraded for 2026 to better factor in the transfer portal.
Many outgoing Penn State players followed former head coach James Franklin to Virginia Tech or defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Tennessee, deepening the roster overhaul Campbell inherited.
Other Week 1 notable lines include LSU as a 10-point favorite over Clemson and Ole Miss -6.5 against Louisville, the weekend's only ranked-on-ranked matchup.

Why it matters: The model's 32-19 money-line record gives weight to a heavy Penn State lean, but the story is equally about roster construction: Campbell transplanted an Iowa State nucleus to Happy Valley while stars followed Franklin and Knowles out the door. Marshall's 5-7 finish and unsettled lines explain the steep 23.5-point spread.