Giants 2026 NFL futures odds: With Jaxson Dart and John Harbaugh, New York aims for Patriots-type formula
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- John Harbaugh was hired by the Giants after being let go by Baltimore, becoming the first coach in NFL history with at least 18 straight seasons with one club to then lead another team.
- Jaxson Dart enters Year 2 after throwing 15 touchdowns as a rookie, joining Cam Newton and Josh Allen as the only rookies in history with 10-plus passing TDs and 8-plus rushing scores.
- The Giants' 7.5 win total at BetMGM is taking 91% of tickets and 94% of the handle — the heaviest action on any Over at the sportsbook and the largest win-total increase (+3.5) among NFC teams off their 2025 finish.
- Malik Nabers (127 catches through 19 career games — second-most in NFL history) and Cam Skattebo (400-plus rushing yards, 200-plus receiving, 7 TDs through Week 8 as a rookie) both return from injuries that ended their 2025 seasons.
- The 2025 New England Patriots — Vrabel hired, second-year QB Maye, coming off 4-13 — became the first team to reach a Super Bowl following a 13-plus loss season, the template CBS draws for these Giants.
- Arvell Reese, the No. 5 overall pick, is +800 for Defensive Rookie of the Year; SportsLine's model projects New York for 7.0 wins and a 13.7% playoff probability.
- A warning buried in the profile: Harbaugh's teams have 26 losses when leading by double digits since 2008 — the most of any NFL coach over that span.
Why it matters: Bettors are piling into the Giants' bounce-back at historic rates — 91% of tickets and 94% of the handle on the Over 7.5 at BetMGM, the largest win-total bump (+3.5) among NFC teams off a 4-13 season. The Patriots comp sets the optimistic ceiling, but Harbaugh's 26 blown double-digit leads since 2008 — most in the NFL — is the counterweight sportsbooks and sharp bettors will be weighing against that consensus hype.
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