Ghalibaf’s maths missile at Trump decoded: Is Iran fixing US interest rates? — SkimNews
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- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted an altered version of the Taylor equation on X with a wartime message, writing "Let's see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel" — a dig at the Federal Reserve's interest-rate tool failing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked for global shipping.
- The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, the first increase in three years.
- Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, speaking after the hike, said renewed fighting between the US and Iran that pushed up petrol prices helped convince Fed officials to support higher rates: "There's no hiding from hot spots around the world."
- The Pentagon conceded earlier this week that Iran's missiles and drones have downed dozens of US aircraft and damaged or destroyed hundreds of buildings at US bases in the Middle East, draining billions of dollars in military inventory.
- IG Group chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp called the Iran war "indirectly, a huge driver of last night's hike, though no one wants to admit it," while Wealth Club's Susannah Streeter said the Fed also weighed AI hyperscaler spending and resilient domestic demand, cautioning Iran is not truly "setting" rates.
- Center for International Policy senior fellow Negar Mortazavi said Ghalibaf's altered Taylor rule adds the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb to a formula normally about inflation and output, "using the Fed's own language to argue that the war's economic costs depend partly on maritime security, which Tehran can affect."
- Trump's tariffs and the energy shock from the war, combined with AI-driven investment, have kept inflationary pressures strong, experts told Al Jazeera.
Why it matters: Warsh's open attribution of the Fed's first rate hike in three years to Iran-related energy shocks is a rare official concession linking a wartime adversary to US monetary policy. Ghalibaf's Taylor equation post, timed to the Fed decision, shows Tehran now treating the Federal Reserve itself as a battlefield — using its tools, language, and rate decisions to amplify the cost of the war for American consumers.
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