Netanyahu's Lebanon War Is an Iran-Deal Veto
SkimNews Take
Netanyahu's political vulnerability, rather than a direct threat from Iran, now drives his perceived need to disrupt any U.S.-Iran rapprochement.
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- Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to "increase the blows" against Hezbollah hours after Trump announced a US-Iran deal was "largely negotiated" through talks that excluded Israel, adding Monday that Israel is "deepening our operation in Lebanon."
- Israel issued evacuation orders for two of southern Lebanon's biggest cities and struck over 100 sites, with Lebanon's health ministry reporting the death toll since the March escalation has surpassed 3,000.
- The emerging US-Iran deal addresses none of Israel's maximalist war aims — destroying Iran's nuclear and ballistic capacity, severing proxy support, or overthrowing the regime — focusing instead on restarting maritime shipping and ending direct US-Iran hostilities.
- Coalition partners Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir are pushing for total escalation: Smotrich approved a $700 million counter-drone budget and said "for every explosive drone, ten buildings in Beirut should fall," while Ben-Gvir called for cutting off Lebanon's electricity and returning to war.
- Netanyahu's coalition is fracturing as ultra-orthodox parties declared "no trust" in him after he failed to pass legislation exempting them from military service, and only 10% of Israelis polled in mid-April viewed the Iran campaign as a significant success.
- Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties under the Beyachad ("Together") banner, running on accountability for October 7, universal conscription, and eight-year term limits for prime ministers — policies aimed squarely at unseating Netanyahu.
- Per the Wall Street Journal, Israeli officials are pushing for "freedom of operation" in Lebanon to be written into the US-Iran deal; if Tehran rejects it — the likelier outcome — the deal could collapse and Netanyahu could claim he refused to let Washington trade away Israel's self-defense.
Why it matters: Netanyahu cannot survive a deal that preserves Hezbollah when only 10% of Israelis credit him with the Iran campaign and elections could come in September; his Lebanon escalation is simultaneously a pressure campaign on Washington, Tehran, and his far-right coalition, but the 3,000+ death toll since March shows the human cost of that gamble is already mounting.
