The changing face of Mongolia as, beneath the grass, permafrost thaws
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- Mongolia's permafrost has shrunk from nearly 63% of the country in 1970s surveys to just 26–29% today, with climate change as the primary driver and overgrazing accelerating the loss by stripping insulating vegetation.
- Nikolay Shiklomanov of George Washington University notes that Mongolia's permafrost is warm, thin and dry — making it more sensitive to warming than the ice-rich permafrost of Siberia, Canada or Alaska.
- In the Darkhad Depression, thermokarst ponds are expanding, pingos are collapsing and wetlands are migrating as underground ice melts and the ground subsides, reshaping traditional grazing areas.
- Yak herders report changing pastures and reduced milk production for traditional foods like airag and cheese, as warming conditions disrupt the cool, moist landscapes yaks depend on.
- Researchers from Mongolia, Japan, Russia and the United States collaborate to monitor ground temperatures, soil conditions and hydrology using sensors, meteorological towers, water samples and drone mapping.
- The Frozen Commons project, led by Vera Kuklina of the University of Maryland and funded by the US National Science Foundation, combines scientific monitoring with oral histories and visual storytelling from Indigenous communities.
- Thawing permafrost releases trapped organic material as methane and carbon dioxide, creating feedback loops that can further accelerate climate warming beyond Mongolia's borders.
Why it matters: Mongolia sits at the southern edge of the Eurasian permafrost zone, where thaw arrives earlier than in colder northern regions — meaning what is happening to its herders, yaks and grasslands today may preview conditions the Arctic faces next. The loss of nearly 37 percentage points of permafrost coverage since the 1970s is already reshaping nomadic livelihoods and releasing greenhouse gases that compound global warming.
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