Here's the inflation breakdown for September 2026 — in one chart — SkimNews
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- Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% year-over-year in September, up from 3.4% in August, while core CPI jumped to 2.6% from 2.4%, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Gasoline prices climbed 9.1% in September alone and are up 34% year-over-year, accounting for more than half the monthly CPI increase, the BLS said
- The average nationwide pump price hit $4.33/gallon on Wednesday, up 45% from $2.98 on Feb. 27 — the day before the Iran war began — according to AAA
- Diesel prices reached $6.30/gallon, up 68% from $3.76 pre-war, with RBC's Michael Reid warning businesses will pass costs to consumers over coming months and holiday discounts may shrink
- The Federal Reserve is likely to keep hiking rates through spring 2027 per a Wells Fargo Investment Institute analysis, as inflation has stayed above the 2% target for over five years and Moody's Mark Zandi said the report 'gives more support' to further tightening
- University of Michigan consumer sentiment plunged to its second-lowest reading on record in September, with Director Joanne Hsu citing 'frustration over cost-of-living continues to mount' across the political spectrum
- Beyond energy, tariffs drove record monthly price jumps in toys and recreational goods, while AI data center chip scarcity pushed Apple and Microsoft to raise prices on MacBooks, iPads and Xboxes; beef prices fell 1% after Trump's August tariff reprieve — the report's only meaningful bright spot
Why it matters: With the report landing less than a month before midterms where affordability is the top voter issue, the 45% surge in gas and 68% surge in diesel since the Iran war began gives the Fed concrete ammunition to keep hiking — and Wells Fargo projects energy won't ease until refining capacity recovers in mid-2027, meaning rate relief for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards likely isn't coming before the election.
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