Here's the inflation breakdown for September 2026 — in one chart — SkimNews
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- US consumer prices rose 3.7% year-over-year in September, up from 3.4% in August, with core CPI — which strips out food and energy — accelerating to 2.6% from 2.4%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
- Gasoline prices jumped 9.1% in September alone and are up 34% year-over-year, with the national average hitting $4.33 per gallon — 45% above the $2.98 average on Feb. 27, the day before the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran
- Diesel prices climbed to $6.30 per gallon, up roughly 68% from pre-war levels, squeezing trucking, farming, manufacturing, and heating costs, and Royal Bank of Canada's Michael Reid said the US economy is in an 'oil story' that will last months more
- The Federal Reserve is likely to continue raising its benchmark interest rate, with Wells Fargo Investment Institute projecting hikes between now and spring 2027, as inflation has remained above the 2% target for over five years
- Consumer sentiment plunged to its second-lowest reading on record in September, according to the University of Michigan, while 76% of AARP respondents said a 3.5% Social Security COLA would not be enough — the SSA announced a 3.6% adjustment for 2027
- Tariffs and AI data center demand are layering additional pressure on top of energy costs, with imported toys posting record monthly price increases and chip shortages cited by Apple and Microsoft for raising MacBook, iPad, and Xbox prices
- Travel costs are also climbing — airline fares up 22% year-over-year and hotel prices up more than 4% — though economists said high-end demand from wealthy Americans riding stock market gains is powering much of the increase, not just jet fuel
Why it matters: With headline CPI at 3.7% and core at 2.6%, the Fed faces pressure to keep raising rates from a target missed for over five years. The timing — weeks before midterms where affordability tops voter concerns — means the Iran war's energy shock is feeding directly into political pain, with 76% of AARP respondents already calling the 3.6% Social Security COLA insufficient.
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