Russian troop build-up threatens city seen as key to seizing Ukraine's Donbas
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- Russian troops have infiltrated Kostyantynivka and are advancing from the south, with soldiers spotted on the city's northern outskirts, creating a "grey zone" no longer controlled by anyone, Ukrainian soldiers told the BBC.
- Brig Gen Oleksandr Bakulin, commander of Ukraine's 19th Corps, acknowledged approximately 130 Russian soldiers are inside the city, while Moscow claims it has encircled Ukrainian units — a claim Kyiv denies, saying "the situation remains under control."
- A Ukrainian officer operating inside the city told the BBC the situation is "far more serious than Ukrainian officials are ready to publicly admit," with Russian forces accumulating soldiers and sometimes advancing just 100 metres per day.
- Russian forces are using cheap Chinese drones for close-range surveillance and targeting Ukrainian drone launch sites, while Ukrainian drone pilots say they are outmatched by enemy artillery, rocket systems, and military aviation.
- Ukrainian soldiers report insufficient reinforcements, with one stating: "We don't have enough people to hold on to what we still control, let alone organise assaults," and noting that commanders are reluctant to report lost positions.
- DeepState, a Ukrainian frontline monitoring project, says the fall of Kostyantynivka "is a matter of time," after which holding Kramatorsk would become "extremely dangerous."
- If Kostyantynivka falls, Russian forces could push toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk — Ukraine's last strongholds in the east — moving closer to seizing Donbas, one of the Kremlin's stated war objectives.
Why it matters: The fall of Kostyantynivka would open the path to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, Ukraine's last remaining strongholds in the east, and bring Russia closer to its stated objective of seizing all of Donbas. Ukrainian soldiers on the ground say they are undermanned and outmatched in drone warfare, with DeepState calling the city's fall "a matter of time."
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