Intel Q2 Revenue Jumps 25%, Goldman Holds Neutral
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- Intel reported Q2 2026 revenue of $16.1 billion, up 25% year over year — the strongest revenue growth in more than 15 years per CEO Lip-Bu Tan, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 nearly doubling the Street's $0.22 estimate
- Goldman Sachs raised estimates by 49% on average but maintained a Neutral rating and an unchanged $150 price target, stating that peers AMD, NVDA, and AVGO offer "relatively more revenue visibility and favorable risk/reward"
- The Data Center and AI segment delivered $6.3 billion in revenue, up 24% quarter-over-quarter and 59% year-over-year, driven by general-purpose server demand and agentic AI; Q3 guidance of $16.3 billion (midpoint) cleared both Goldman and consensus
- Intel 18A-P entered risk production in Q2 using ASML's EXE High NA EUV technology, while the 14A process targets volume production in 2028 and drove Intel to raise its 2026 CapEx guidance to over $20 billion (from $17 billion)
- Intel announced a €5 billion investment to expand Xeon 6 and next-gen Xeon manufacturing, with plans to increase WFE tooling spending by approximately 40% in 2026 and significant further CapEx increases in 2027
- INTC ranks 6th among S&P 500 stocks year-to-date at approximately 154% in gains, while FactSet data shows the semiconductor industry reporting 134% year-over-year earnings growth and 76% revenue growth in Q2 2026
Why it matters: Goldman's Neutral call despite a 49% estimate raise is the story — blockbuster execution capped Intel at 30x normalized EPS of $5.00 because AMD, NVDA, and AVGO offer better visibility. The $20B-plus CapEx escalation for 14A and Advanced Packaging locks Intel into heavy spending years through 2027, raising the bar for converting capacity into foundry revenue before competitors close the gap.
