Caleb Williams 2026 NFL futures odds, props: Will Chicago Bears finally have a 4,000-yard passer?
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- Caleb Williams is priced at +200 to throw for at least 4,000 yards in 2026, with a DraftKings over/under of 3,624.5 passing yards and 24.5 touchdowns, making him a roughly 33% implied shot at the milestone.
- Williams threw for a franchise-record 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2025 under new head coach Ben Johnson, leading Chicago to the NFC North title in just their second year together.
- Williams went from 68 sacks as a 2024 rookie to 24 in 2025 — a drop of 44 that is the largest in NFL history among quarterbacks who started every game in both seasons.
- The Bears' offensive line faces fresh upheaval with Pro Bowl center Drew Dalman's surprise retirement and left tackle Ozzy Trapilo sidelined by a torn patellar tendon; trade pickup Garrett Bradbury is expected to start at center.
- Williams' 58.1% completion rate in 2025 was the worst for any quarterback to reach the postseason since Andrew Luck in 2012, better only than Minnesota's JJ McCarthy among QBs with at least 10 games.
- Williams lost his 2025 second-leading receiver DJ Moore (50 catches, 682 yards, 6 TDs) to a trade with Buffalo, and faces a likely three-game outdoor cold-weather stretch in Weeks 15-17 at Buffalo, vs. Green Bay, and vs. Detroit.
- DraftKings also lists Williams at +175 for a single 400-yard game and +100000 to clear 250 yards in all 17 games; the Bears haven't had a 400-yard passer since Jim Miller's 422-yard game on Nov. 14, 1999 — the longest such active drought in the league.
Why it matters: Williams needs to average 235.3 yards across a full 17-game season to hit 4,000 — a bar he nearly cleared last year (3,942) before losing his No. 2 receiver and two starting offensive linemen. With the +200 price implying roughly a one-in-three shot, bettors are weighing the Bears' franchise-record offensive line rebuild and a brutal late-season cold-weather slate against Johnson's scheme giving Williams his best shot yet at history.
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