September jobs miss hands Powell his October alibi — SkimNews
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- Nike missed fiscal Q1 revenue at $11.21B vs. $11.32B expected, and posted a 26% drop in Greater China revenue — a second consecutive quarter of double-digit declines in the region.link ›
- The BLS reported just 29,000 nonfarm jobs added in September, well below the 84,000 consensus, with unemployment rising to 4.2% and prior months revised down by 60,000.link ›
- Bitcoin briefly hit $86,885 ahead of the payrolls release, holding a $82K–$85K range through the week as the 10-year yield sat near multi-decade highs of 5.34%.link ›
- The Fed Inspector General found no grounds for a criminal referral in the $2.4B Powell renovation; the DOJ probe was already closed after a judge called it a pretext for pressuring the Fed chief.link ›
- Egg prices fell from $4.95 a dozen in January to $2.27 in August, but LEAP Market Analytics' Mark Jordan attributes 90–95% of the move to biosecurity and a milder flu season, not policy.link ›
- Mortgage rates climbed to 7% for a sixth straight week, freezing housing demand at the worst affordability level in years.link ›
- U.S. crude fell nearly 8% for the week on stalled U.S.–Iran talks, even as intraday action whipsawed on a rejected Iranian offer.link ›
The September jobs report landed like a thud: 29,000 positions added against an 84,000 consensus, unemployment ticking to 4.2%, and prior months revised down by 60,000 combined. Wage growth cooled to 3% year-over-year — the weakest since May 2021 — and traders pushed Fed hold odds at the Oct. 27-28 meeting to 82.8%. Bitcoin briefly hit $86,885 on the soft print while the 10-year yield sat at multi-decade highs near 5.34%, a textbook cooling labor market colliding with a still-tight cost of capital. Nike made the corporate case worse: a 26% revenue drop in China, the second straight quarter of double-digit declines in its most important growth market. The Fed now has its cover.
The stories behind this week
Nike stock drops as revenue falls short of estimates, China sales plunge againNike beat on profit but missed on sales, and the 26% China drop shows the turnaround isn't gaining traction where it's needed most. With a projected revenue decline through 2027, investors are pricing in prolonged weakness despite margin resilience, hitting shareholder value hard.
U.S. Added 29,000 Jobs in September; Rate at 4.2%Wage growth cooled to 3% annually and the unemployment rate climbed, giving the Federal Reserve cover to hold rates at its Oct. 27-28 meeting, where traders now price 82.8% odds of no change. The weak report shifts the policy debate to December even as GDP growth tracks a robust 3.7% for Q3, per the Atlanta Fed.
Bitcoin Tops $86,000 Ahead of September Jobs DataWith September payrolls forecast at just 90,000 versus 162,000 in August and the 10-year Treasury yield at multi-decade highs of 5.34%, Friday's release will test whether Bitcoin can hold above $86,000 — particularly as the dollar sits at an 18-month high above 102 and squeezes risk assets globally.
Fed Watchdog Clears Powell Renovation of Criminal WrongdoingThe watchdog's no-criminal-finding directly undercuts the legal pretext Trump used to pressure Powell over interest rates, yet Trump responded by renewing his resignation demand — meaning the Fed independence fight continues even after the formal case against Powell collapsed. The report simultaneously vindicates the Fed's design choices while validating real cost-management failures (no contractor cap, weak oversight) that the White House's "marble and fountains" narrative failed to prove caused the overrun.
Egg prices have tumbled since Trump returned to office. Here's whyHeading into the midterms, Trump's affordability pitch leans heavily on egg prices falling from $4.95 to $2.27 a dozen, but experts attribute roughly 90-95% of that drop to biosecurity gains and a milder avian flu season, not policy, while his own tariffs and the Iran war have raised farmers' costs and overall grocery prices remain up 2.2% year-over-year.
Mortgage Rates Hit 7% for Sixth Straight WeekSix straight weeks of rate increases to 7% means prospective buyers face higher monthly payments while homeowners lose refinancing incentive, squeezing an already strained housing market.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increase by 29,000 in September, less than expected; unemployment rises to 4.2% - CNBCThe weaker-than-expected 29,000-job gain and rising unemployment break the recent trend of resilient labor data, giving the Fed more room to hold or cut rates if inflation cools further. With markets pricing in less urgency for hikes, this shift could ease financial conditions just as borrowing costs have peaked.
Oil Diverges on Stalled US-Iran TalksOil traders are getting conflicting signals from the same news cycle: intraday strength on a rejected Iran offer (Bloomberg) sits against a nearly 8% weekly decline, meaning the tape is being driven as much by headline interpretation as by fundamentals.
Why it matters: A 29K print gives the Fed a clean, data-driven justification to hold rates at the Oct. 27-28 meeting rather than cave to political pressure, effectively letting the labor market do the easing without anyone having to ask for it.
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