Tesla stock drops 12% on Q2 EPS miss, $25B capex
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- Tesla stock dropped 12.17% after Q2 adjusted EPS came in at $0.33 versus the $0.50 Wall Street expected, even as revenue beat at $28.24 billion (up 26% YoY) versus $26.32 billion consensus
- Tesla confirmed full-year 2026 capex will exceed $25 billion, with Musk calling 2026 a "massive capex year" to fund Optimus, an AI data center build-out, and the Cybercab ramp
- Robotaxi expanded to seven major metro areas with new unsupervised launches in Miami, Orlando, and Tampa, and Musk promised "more than 10% growth in miles driven per week" going forward
- Optimus humanoid robot production remains on track for later this year, but Tesla declined to specify when the latest version would be revealed; initial builds will feed an "Optimus Academy" for training data
- Full Self-Driving active subscriptions climbed to 1.48 million, up 56% year-over-year, while free cash flow burn came in at -$1.09 billion — less severe than the -$3.64 billion analysts had estimated
- Cox Automotive forecasts a 20% US sales decline for Tesla from the federal EV tax credit expiration, while Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu noted Greater Europe registrations jumped nearly 108% in May, doing "the heavy lifting"
- Musk acknowledged "overlap" between Tesla and SpaceX on projects like Terafab and AI initiatives, but said combining the two companies must follow "appropriate process"
Why it matters: The 12% drop signals investors are rewarding Tesla's revenue momentum but punishing the $25 billion capex burn needed to fund Optimus and Cybercab — bets that justify the premium valuation while consuming cash now. With US sales projected to fall 20% from the federal EV tax credit expiry, Europe (registrations up ~108% in May) is doing the heavy lifting on volume.
