Trump caught in 'asymmetric resolve' trap in Iran war
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- Charles Walldorf, a Wake Forest politics professor, argues Trump has fallen into an 'asymmetric resolve' trap, in which a stronger power with less will to fight faces a weaker adversary whose regime survival is at stake — making victory 'tough, even close to impossible.'
- As of mid-March, the war has produced upward of 5,000 Iranian military casualties and more than 1,500 Iranian civilian deaths, compared to 13 dead US service members, yet Tehran has not backed down.
- A Marist poll from March 6 found 55% of Americans viewed Iran as a minor threat or no threat at all, and the war is more unpopular than nearly any US war since WWII, with roughly 60% of Americans in opposition.
- Historical parallels Walldorf cites: Vietnam (1.1 million North Vietnamese dead vs. 58,000 US troops; US withdrawal), Afghanistan (84,000 Taliban vs. 2,400 US troops; Taliban returned to power), and the Soviet Union's 1980s Afghan defeat.
- Tehran rejected a 15-point US ceasefire plan, closed the Strait of Hormuz, and declared on March 10, 'We will determine when the war ends,' while Trump conceded regime change is now a 'very big hurdle.'
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in January that 'Iran is probably weaker than it's ever been' — a framing the article says conflicts with Iran's continued battlefield resilience.
- Trump has previously walked away from losing fights — signing a 2020 deal with the Taliban and declaring victory in Yemen last year — and could do the same with Iran, potentially conceding Hormuz access or sanctions relief.
Why it matters: With roughly 60% of Americans opposing the war and Iran sustaining 5,000+ military casualties without breaking, Trump faces the same fork past presidents hit in Vietnam and Afghanistan: escalate into a quagmire or cut a deal and withdraw. His history of face-saving exits (Taliban 2020, Yemen 2024) points toward withdrawal, but more US troops and B-52 bombers are already heading to the Gulf, and the 'hubris of power' has historically won.
