Bitcoin Near $65,000 as Oil, Inflation Hopes Lift Macro Bid
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- Bitcoin hovered near $64,830 on Thursday, up 0.8% over 24 hours and 1.3% on the week, trading inside a narrow band per CoinDesk data
- Ether rose 2.1% while most other majors barely moved, leaving the broader market in 'wait-and-see mode' rather than rally mode
- President Donald Trump pointed to strong employment, better manufacturing data, and cooling inflation as the macro backdrop, and raised the possibility of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- A Hormuz reopening would pressure oil lower, easing inflation worries and giving Treasury yields and the dollar room to fall — the setup risk assets want, the article argues
- Bitcoin's roughly 63% correlation with the S&P 500 means equity sentiment may matter more than crypto-native flows in the near term, and a calmer Middle East can also reduce the safe-haven bid that supported bitcoin earlier this summer
- The levels to watch are real yields and the dollar: if both fall alongside oil, bitcoin has a cleaner path above its recent range; if yields stay firm, the macro case stays theoretical and bitcoin likely stays pinned near $65,000
Why it matters: Bitcoin's near-term path now depends on macro plumbing — oil, real yields, and the dollar — rather than crypto-native catalysts, with roughly 63% of its movement tracking the S&P 500. A Hormuz deal that pulls oil and yields lower could break bitcoin above its recent range near $65,000; if yields stay firm, the rally thesis remains theoretical and the price stays pinned.
