US to NATO: Prepare for Russian Attack Within Years — SkimNews
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- Matt Whitaker, US Ambassador to NATO, told USA TODAY that allies must train and invest as though an attack were possible because "you can't predict what Vladimir Putin's going to do," even though no imminent assault is planned.
- Leaked US intelligence, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, indicated Putin could attempt a limited assault — a land incursion or cyberattack — on a NATO nation within years, compressing the 10-15 year window allies had used when setting spending targets.
- NATO allies agreed last year to allocate 5% of annual GDP to defense by 2035, with at least 3.5% going directly to military spending, but US officials are now pushing to accelerate that timeline as Russia's defense production outpaces the alliance's.
- Russia has shifted to a war footing, devoting nearly 40% of federal spending to defense and security, and CSIS's Max Bergmann warned that while Russia "can produce a thousand cruise missiles," NATO's ability to build air defense interceptors "is just inept."
- CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced Moscow visit late last week, reportedly warning Russia against attacking NATO territory, telling Moscow it is losing the war in Ukraine, and pressing it to cut ties with Iran.
- European officials say Russia is already testing NATO through hybrid attacks: explosive drones found near a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig airport, a naval drone near a Romanian Black Sea gas facility, and drones triggering air-raid sirens in Estonia overnight on Sept. 1.
Why it matters: The leaked intelligence shaves years off NATO's assumed preparation window, and Russia is already spending ~40% of its federal budget on defense while the US is fighting a war in Iran — meaning European allies face simultaneous pressure to accelerate toward the 5% GDP target and to respond to active sabotage (drone incursions in Estonia, Romania, and Germany) that experts like Fiona Hill describe as "acts of war" falling short of an Article 5 trigger.
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