Myanmar junta controls 21% of territory, resistance 42%
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Min Aung Hlaing – his allies push a narrative that the military is “on the upswing,” a storyline echoed by US media such as NPR.
- CFR – its Global Conflict Tracker, based on a BBC World Service investigation, estimates the junta controls roughly 21% of Myanmar’s territory, while resistance forces and ethnic armed groups hold about 42% and the remainder is contested.
- Arakan Army – by late 2024 it controlled 13 of Rakhine’s 17 townships, including the whole Bangladesh border, and has expanded operations into Bago, Magway, and Ayeyarwady, acting as a de‑facto government in western Myanmar (CSIS, ACLED).
- Myanmar junta – recaptured the Shan‑state towns of Kyaukme and Hsipaw in October 2025, restoring a corridor to the Chinese border, and retook Lashio in April 2025 after the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army withdrew under Beijing pressure (BBC).
- Fortify Rights – documented 304 paramotor and gyrocopter attacks on civilians across Sagaing, Magway, Mandalay, Ayeyarwady, and Bago between December 2024 and January 2026, with spikes coinciding with election periods.
- India – its outreach projects such as the Kaladan Multi‑Modal Transit Transport Project and the India‑Myanmar‑Thailand Trilateral Highway face the obstacle that key corridors run through townships controlled by the Arakan Army rather than the junta (Rediff, ACLED).
- National Unity Government – in March 2026 it formed the Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union with major ethnic revolutionary groups, and a CFR‑cited survey shows roughly 93% of respondents inside Myanmar view the NUG favorably.
Why it matters: The over‑stated ‘comeback’ narrative benefits foreign investors and governments seeking stability, but it obscures that the junta governs only a fraction of the country while resistance groups control most territory and enjoy broad popular support, meaning policy and investment decisions based on the hype risk misallocation and further instability.
