More North Sea gas won't cut emissions
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- The author argues that whether the UK approves new North Sea exploration licences won't reduce total fossil fuel burning or limit atmospheric CO2, only shifting where oil and gas is sourced from
- Andy Burnham, named as the UK's new prime minister, has made a 'good start' on climate by cutting VAT on electricity to make swapping gas boilers for heat pumps more appealing
- North Sea oil and gas is sold at global market prices, and more than 90% of reserves have already been extracted, so additional drilling won't bring down UK energy prices
- North Sea gas emissions are only about 15% lower than LNG overall — not 'four times cleaner' as drilling supporters claim — because burning emissions dominate production emissions; LNG now accounts for over half of UK gas imports with 37% coming from the US
- Norwegian pipeline gas has lower production emissions than North Sea gas, making increased imports from Norway a better climate option than expanding North Sea production
- Nearly 60 fossil fuel production restrictions exist across 25 countries, but 15 have already been repealed and no major producer plans to fully stop production, according to the International Institute for Sustainable Development
- Spain and France are cited as examples of countries where aggressive renewables rollout is breaking the link between gas prices and electricity prices
Why it matters: This reframes a live UK political fight: with more than 90% of North Sea reserves already extracted and remaining gas only 15% cleaner than LNG once combustion is counted, expanding domestic production is both economically marginal (sold at global prices) and climatically marginal. Real progress depends on Burnham's demand-side moves, starting with his VAT cut on electricity to pull households off gas boilers.
