Satellites show some of the strongest evidence the AMOC is weakening — SkimNews
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- Richard Allan and colleagues used satellite measurements to calculate an 18% decrease in heat flux from the North Atlantic since the 1980s, linking it to a weakening AMOC.
- Michael Mayer states the study’s net air-sea flux data are of higher quality than prior estimates, making it a more reliable indicator of AMOC changes.
- Neil Fraser calls the findings some of the strongest evidence so far that the AMOC has weakened over the past four decades, based on the heat-exchange mechanism central to the system.
- Stefan Rahmstorf argues that while heat flux isn’t definitively superior to sea-surface temperatures, multiple lines of evidence—including this study—collectively strengthen concern about an AMOC tipping point.
- David Thornalley notes that heat flux is 'one step closer to the thing that drives AMOC' than surface temperatures, which can be influenced by atmospheric shifts like jet stream changes.
- A 2018 analysis estimated a 15% AMOC weakening since the 1950s based on the 'cold blob' in the North Atlantic, a region that has cooled while the rest of the world warmed.
Why it matters: The 18% drop in heat release from the North Atlantic over 40 years, now detectable via satellite, gives scientists a more precise tool to track AMOC decline—critical because a collapse could disrupt European climate by 2060, triggering harsh winters and droughts. This method may enable earlier warnings than current buoy-based monitoring.
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