Iran war cuts 12m barrels/day, pushes Brent above $100
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- Iran – US forces struck Iran’s Kharg Island oil supply hub; President Trump said all military targets were destroyed while sparing energy infrastructure, and warned further destruction if Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz shipping.
- JPMorgan – Analyst Natasha Kaneva projected that by the end of next week crude supply cuts could reach 12 million barrels per day, creating an acute shortage of diesel, jet fuel, LPG and naphtha.
- RBC Capital Markets – The firm revised its outlook, expecting oil prices to exceed the $128 high seen after Russia’s 2022 invasion and to top the 2008 record of about $147, and extended the war’s duration to “well into the spring”.
- Goldman Sachs – Estimated that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 600,000 barrels per day, down from normal levels above 19 million barrels per day.
- Australia – Announced it would release domestic fuel reserves to counter possible shortages and panic buying amid the supply disruption.
- Mojtaba Khamenei – Iran’s new supreme leader declared the strait would stay closed and warned the world to prepare for $200 oil.
- US – Gasoline prices rose to $3.63 per gallon, closing in on $4 after 13 consecutive days of gains.
Why it matters: The 12 million‑barrel‑per‑day supply shortfall and the collapse of Hormuz flows push Brent above $100 and threaten to breach $147, squeezing diesel, jet fuel and LPG availability. Consumers and transport firms face higher costs, while oil producers and countries with strategic reserves stand to profit from the price surge.
