This is the biggest threat to the AI-powered bull market — SkimNews
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- S&P 500 earnings are on track to grow by more than 30% in 2026, with blockbuster profit growth helping power the stock market higher.
- Capital Economics says the 2026 growth pace is rarely seen outside the early innings of an economic recovery.
- S&P 500 profit growth is forecast to slow to 16.3% in 2027, when a less-blockbuster earnings pace could throw investors for a loop.
- Capital Economics still puts the 16.3% rate at roughly double the long-term average, leaving the projected slowdown at a historically elevated growth level.
Why it matters: For investors, the material change is the loss of exceptional momentum: Capital Economics’ forecast puts S&P 500 profit growth above 30% in 2026 and at 16.3% in 2027. The slower pace remains roughly twice the long-term average, so corporate profits still grow at a historically strong rate even as the exceptional phase eases.
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