Paramount-WBD Deal Odds Fall to 74% on Prediction Markets
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- Kalshi traders price a 74% likelihood that Paramount acquires Warner Bros. Discovery by July 2027, with 22% odds the deal falls through.
- Before California and 11 other states sued to block the merger on July 13, odds of success were over 80%; they fell to as low as 66% by July 24 when Paramount said it would delay closing to 2027.
- Polymarket shows a similar 23% chance that no acquisition of Warner Bros. succeeds by June 30, 2027.
- The merger's termination date is March 4, 2027, automatically extending to June 4, 2027 if only regulatory obstacles remain.
- A federal judge set a March 2027 trial date for the states' lawsuit; if the deal doesn't close by September 30, Paramount will owe 25 cents per share, per quarter to Warner Bros. shareholders.
- The Directors Guild of America and International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees wrote to California AG Rob Bonta and Paramount CEO David Ellison urging them to negotiate a solution or move the trial earlier.
Why it matters: Odds have fallen from over 80% to 74% since 12 state attorneys general sued to block the deal, and the 25-cent-per-share quarterly payment Paramount owes if closing slips past September 30 gives the company a concrete financial cost to push for either a faster trial or a negotiated settlement.
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