Oil Climbs Past $97 as Iran Threatens Gulf Retaliation — SkimNews
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- Brent crude futures climbed 34 cents to $97.34 a barrel while WTI rose $1.15 to $92.63, with Brent hitting its highest level since July 24 as traders built risk premium around Hormuz tensions.
- Iran warned Monday that Gulf energy infrastructure, including US oil and gas interests, remained vulnerable and threatened retaliation against any new US attacks on its assets.
- US Central Command struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one near Kharg Island, Iran's main export hub, following strikes by Iran's Revolutionary Guards on US warships.
- Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent forecast by $5 to $85 and WTI to $80, also lifting 2027 forecasts to $80 and $75 respectively on a new assumption that Middle East shipping disruptions continue into 2027.
- ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said the escalation raises the likelihood of a prolonged standoff, with Persian Gulf supply remaining constrained through the rest of 2026 and no full return to pre-war throughput until late Q1 or early Q2 2027.
- Marex analyst Ed Meir said in the firm's September commodity outlook that crude prices will likely stay elevated through year-end as long as the war continues, given unresolved underlying issues.
Why it matters: With Goldman and ANZ both modeling multi-quarter supply constraints, energy-importing economies face an extended cost burden, while Iran's explicit threats against Gulf energy infrastructure make Goldman's $85 year-end Brent call a live bet rather than a tail risk. Brent sits at $97.34 despite strikes on Kharg Island, meaning markets have not yet fully reflected the disruption scenario Goldman now models through 2027.
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