Skenes' Rough Patch Hurts Pirates' Playoff Push
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- Paul Skenes allowed 3 runs in 5 innings against the Brewers on Wednesday while walking 4 batters; in the two starts before that he gave up 13 runs in 14.1 innings with 10 combined walks.
- Skenes' 2026 line — 3.96 ERA, 109 ERA+, 2.86 FIP, .309 BABIP — points to bad luck on contact, but his walk rate has climbed from 5.7% to 6.8% and Stuff+ grades have fallen across his fastball, sinker, slider, and changeup.
- Mechanically, Skenes' arm slot has crept up 3 degrees and his landing spot sits slightly deeper on all pitches, though the article flags that as potentially unrelated to his recent dip.
- The Pirates sit at 57-59, 4.5 games behind the third NL wild card spot and behind four teams in that chase, with SportsLine giving Pittsburgh a 31% chance of reaching the postseason.
- Pittsburgh owns a plus-27 run differential (5th in the NL), which projects to a 61-55 record — a half-game out of a wild card spot — indicating the Pirates have been broadly unlucky in tight and clutch situations.
- After years of operating with a thin roster under owner Bob Nutting, the Pirates invested this season and acted as buyers at the deadline, with GM Ben Cherington remaking the bullpen for the stretch run.
Why it matters: The Pirates' first real playoff push in more than a decade is running headfirst into Skenes' worst stretch as a pro — his 3.96 ERA, climbing walk rate, and diminished velocity leave little margin for a team sitting 4.5 games out of a wild card spot with a 31% postseason probability and a run differential that says they should already be closer to .500.
