Can we electrify the world? Ambition moves from nerdish backwater to centre stage
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- Turkey, with co-president Australia, proposed a target of 35% of final energy to come from electricity by 2035 ahead of the Cop31 summit in November, calling it "the most important tool" for meeting Paris agreement goals
- Murat Kurum, Turkey's environment minister, said "without electrification, we won't be able to reach any of the targets" of the Paris agreement, framing it as the missing piece for phasing out the 80% of global energy still derived from hydrocarbons
- Saudi Arabia, the Arab group, and India objected to language reaffirming climate science and the 1.5C goal, prompting UN climate chief Simon Stiell to warn of "side-stepping and stalling" as two weeks of talks ended with many issues unresolved
- Prof Jan Rosenow of Oxford University estimated in a forthcoming paper that global electrification would halve energy demand, producing savings that "would quickly reach trillions of dollars" globally
- Country progress on the proposed 35% benchmark varies sharply: Japan has nearly reached it, China sits near 30%, the US lags at 22%, India and Brazil are around 20%, and the global average is 21%
- Negotiators said Donald Trump's presidency emboldened Saudi Arabia to take a more disruptive role, with Russia, India, and even Kenya aligning with Saudi positions on some issues where the US previously held them back
Why it matters: If adopted at Cop31, Turkey and Australia's 35% electrification target would be the first concrete measurable benchmark for displacing the 80% of global energy still from hydrocarbons, with Rosenow estimating savings would quickly reach trillions globally. The proposal's path is uncertain because Saudi Arabia, India, and Russia — emboldened by US disengagement under Trump — are already working to dilute climate-science language and other measures during negotiations.
