The great matcha rivalry: Can Japan’s centuries-old tradition hold its own against China’s scale?
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- Horii Shichimeien in Uji sells premium matcha tins for nearly US$170 each, with prices now three to five times higher than five years ago as crowds line up before opening.
- Japan's matcha industry has roughly tripled tencha production over the past decade to more than 6,200 tonnes in 2025, while green tea exports hit a record 12,600+ tonnes (up 43% year-on-year) for six consecutive years.
- China now accounts for roughly 70% of global matcha supply (over 12,000 tonnes last year), with Tongren in Guizhou alone producing about a fifth; its biggest maker Gui Tea Group sold 2,500+ tonnes, exporting to more than 50 countries including Japan.
- Guizhou province is targeting a US$1.5 billion matcha industry by 2030, aided by Guizhou Jinsanye Machinery Manufacturing equipment that costs 40% less than imports and lets new regions enter the market.
- Shizuoka farmers are pivoting from sencha to tencha as sencha production fell over 25% in a decade (from 49,000+ tonnes in 2015 to roughly 36,500 tonnes in 2025); Ryutsu Service plans to expand from 12ha to 150ha to fill orders already totalling 100 tonnes.
- Uji drew a record 6.2 million tourists in 2025 amid the boom, but the industry's aging leaf-picking workforce—mainly women—is running out of successors, with younger generation inheritors like Shunta Horii now entering the trade.
Why it matters: With China controlling 70% of global supply and Guizhou aiming for a US$1.5 billion matcha industry by 2030, Japanese producers like Horii Shichimeien (US$170 tins, 6.2 million Uji tourists in 2025) must monetize heritage and terroir rather than volume—a race Japan can win on margin but not on scale, while Shizuoka's sencha farms (down 25% in a decade) get squeezed in between.
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