Bitcoin spikes toward $80K as US CPI data delivers new 22-year high in bond yields — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin spiked toward $80,000 after initially dropping to $76,000, gaining more than 3% on the day following the release of August CPI at 3.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations
- US equities mirrored the reversal — the S&P 500 added 1% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% after a weak start, catalyzed by CPI conforming to forecasts only a day after PPI overshot
- US 30-year bond yields whipsawed on the CPI print, first reaching their highest level since June 2004 before falling to 5.309%, prompting The Kobeissi Letter to call it "a nervous market"
- Gasoline drove the inflation print, with the BLS confirming the gasoline index rose 3.9% in August — over one-third of the monthly all-items increase — as WTI crude circled $100 per barrel amid the US-Iran war
- Core CPI rose 0.3% in August, 0.1% more than anticipated, pushing CME FedWatch odds of a 0.25% Fed rate hike at the September 16 meeting to 85%, up from 60% a week earlier
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last week he would be inclined to hold rates at 3.50-3.75% if inflation showed "some signs of disinflation," highlighting the split among policymakers
- QCP Capital warned Bitcoin bulls have little to look forward to, calling the combination of a competing 5% risk-free rate without a nominal-growth impulse "the worst mix for Bitcoin" that undercuts the Treasury-liquidity narrative
Why it matters: With core CPI overshooting by 0.1%, the 30-year yield briefly hitting a 22-year high, and rate-hike odds jumping to 85%, the macro backdrop is turning against Bitcoin precisely as price pushes toward $80K — QCP Capital argues the 5% risk-free rate directly undercuts the Treasury-liquidity thesis that lifted BTC from $63K to $82K in August.
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