Model picks Under in Missouri vs. Kansas rivalry game — SkimNews
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- Missouri enters Friday's matchup at Kansas Memorial Stadium (8 p.m. ET) as a 4.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 51.5 points in the latest odds
- The Missouri-Kansas rivalry, which dates to 1891, resumed last year after a 14-season hiatus triggered by Missouri's move to the SEC; Missouri won the 2025 edition 42-31
- Both teams piled up offense in Week 1 — Kansas scored 54 points and Missouri put up 51 — though defenses also controlled those games, with Kansas limiting LIU to 146 total yards and Missouri leading Arkansas-Pine Bluff just 4-0 at halftime
- The SportsLine Projection Model, which is on a 33-20 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since the 2024 season and was upgraded to factor in the transfer portal, simulated the matchup 10,000 times and projects 40 combined points
- The model is picking the Under (51.5) as hitting 73% of the time while also flagging one side of the spread as hitting more than 70% of the time
- Missouri's defense allowed just 20 points per game last season (19th nationally), while Kansas gave up only 24.7 ppg at home — framing both units as potentially decisive Friday night
Why it matters: With both teams coming off 50-plus-point offensive explosions, the model's Under lean at 73% confidence — paired with a spread pick clearing 70% — signals bettors that Friday's rivalry game may hinge on the defenses rather than the Week 1 scoring pace, giving the SportsLine model's subscribers a specific, high-conviction angle ahead of kickoff.
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