2026 BMW Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions by model that's nailed 17 majors
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- Scottie Scheffler is the +310 favorite for the 2026 BMW Championship via FanDuel after winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship by eight strokes to open the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
- Ludvig Aberg (+1500) barely cracks the model's top 10 despite two straight top-10 finishes; his T2 at last year's BMW Championship was carried by a single second-round 63, with all other rounds above 70.
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) is flagged as a strong win contender, having finished top-25 in 13 of 17 events this season with eight top-10s, four top-5s, and ranking among the tour's most accurate drivers — an asset on Bellerive's thick rough.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated the tournament 10,000 times and has nailed 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters (its fifth Masters in a row) and the 2025 PGA Championship and Open Championship.
- The 2026 BMW Championship begins Thursday at 10:03 a.m. ET at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, with 50 golfers qualifying from the FedEx Cup standings.
- The model is targeting a longshot of around +3000 to make a strong run up the leaderboard, with the specific pick gated behind SportsLine's subscription.
Why it matters: Scheffler's eight-stroke romp and dominant points lead have made him a heavy +310 chalk, but a model with a 17-major track record is publicly fading the second-favorite Aberg at +1500 and flagging value on Fleetwood (+2200) and a +3000 longshot. Bettors who trust the model over the public market find a contrarian edge: backing Scheffler is paying the least for the most obvious favorite in a field where the model's top picks don't match the odds board.
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