2026 BMW Championship predictions, odds: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy lead 50-man field into St. Louis
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- Scottie Scheffler enters as the 3-1 favorite at DraftKings, defending the title he won at Caves Valley last season and riding momentum as a 21-time PGA Tour winner and four-time major champion.
- Bellerive Country Club hosts the BMW Championship Aug. 20-23, its first pro tournament since the 2018 PGA Championship, with the par-70, 7,448-yard Robert Trent Jones Sr. design expected to reward long hitters and elite ball strikers.
- Rory McIlroy sits at 13-1 odds after a rough St. Jude Championship return where he beat only two players in Memphis, and is treating the FedEx Cup Playoffs as a 12-round tune-up ahead of East Lake.
- Viktor Hovland at No. 22 is the final player with a 100% chance of reaching the Tour Championship per Data Golf, while Alex Smalley, Justin Rose, Ryan Fox and Tom Kim sit just behind with north of 80% odds to advance.
- Sungjae Im at No. 40 was the only player to play his way into the BMW Championship field last weekend, narrowly ahead of former BMW winners Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay and 2025 PGA Championship winner Aaron Rai at No. 37.
- Si Woo Kim has five podium finishes and is the only player besides Scheffler with double-digit top-10s this season, making a strong case as the best winless player on Tour after a bogey-free runner-up at TPC Southwind.
- Cameron Young ranks seventh tee-to-green but has been the second-worst putter on Tour over the past three months, gaining strokes on the greens only twice since the PGA Championship.
Why it matters: With only 22 of 50 players already locked into the Tour Championship at East Lake, the remaining 28 are competing for just 8 spots across two events — and a $20 million purse magnifies every stroke. McIlroy's return from rust after the Masters win is a major storyline, but the bubble math behind names like Hovland, Kim and Im is where this week's field actually gets decided.
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