Met Office: Strongest El Niño in Century to Batter UK
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- Met Office forecasts the largest El Niño since the 19th century, with Pacific sea temperatures set to rise by 3C — compared to 1C for a typical El Niño and 2C for a "really big event" — which Prof Adam Scaife called "unheard of in modern climate records."
- Scaife said wave-like disturbances from the tropics will bring increased rainfall and storminess to the UK around November, while causing severe droughts in South America, the west Pacific, southern Africa, and north-east Australia.
- Dr Nick Dunstone said 2027 is "very likely" to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and temporarily exceed 1.5C above preindustrial levels as more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere.
- England is already 71.3% in drought with all of Wales, marking the driest July in 190 years; reservoir levels sit at 62.6%, 16.3% lower than the seasonal norm, per Defra.
- The National Drought Group warned that despite El Niño, current forecasts don't suggest enough autumn rainfall to drive recovery before December and is shifting from monthly to weekly meetings to coordinate its response.
- Andy Burnham said Cobra was briefed on the potential for a wet autumn and winter immediately following the current drought, citing El Niño effects.
Why it matters: The El Niño alone won't rescue England and Wales from drought — the National Drought Group explicitly said autumn rainfall won't be enough to replenish rivers and reservoirs before December, meaning water restrictions affecting millions persist even as storms arrive. Globally, the 3C Pacific temperature spike virtually guarantees 2027 shatters the 2024 heat record, testing the 1.5C Paris threshold on a near-term timeline.
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