Nvidia Earnings: $78B, Vera Rubin, China Chip Relief
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- Nvidia expects fiscal first‑quarter revenue of $78 billion, plus or minus 2%, according to its February guidance, implying roughly 77% year‑over‑year growth.
- Wall Street estimates forecast fiscal second‑quarter revenue of about $87 billion, so a Q1 result below Nvidia’s own target could be read as a slowdown in AI demand.
- Nvidia will begin including stock‑based compensation in its non‑GAAP (adjusted) earnings measures starting this quarter.
- Colette Kress said Nvidia shipped its first Vera Rubin samples to customers and aims to start production shipments in the second half of 2026.
- Vera Rubin is Nvidia’s next‑generation rack‑scale AI platform, positioned as a generational leap in performance per watt over the Blackwell generation.
- Trump administration eased export restrictions on Nvidia’s H200 chip in mid‑January, allowing case‑by‑case approvals with a 25% tariff.
- Jensen Huang told Bloomberg that the Chinese market will open “over time,” suggesting possible future data‑center revenue from China.
Why it matters: Meeting the $78 billion guidance would confirm the AI demand surge and support Nvidia’s 19% YTD stock gain, while a shortfall would signal a slowdown and pressure the share price. The Vera Rubin launch and possible Chinese data‑center revenue add growth upside, and the new stock‑based compensation accounting changes non‑GAAP earnings reporting.
