Shopify shares soar as revenue forecast paints AI as growth driver
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- Shopify issued a Q3 revenue forecast of low-thirties percentage growth, well above the 26.3% analyst estimate from LSEG, and projected mid-to-high twenties percentage rise in gross profit, sending shares up over 18%.
- Shopify's Q2 results beat expectations across the board: revenue surged 34% to $3.58B (vs. $3.45B estimate), adjusted profit hit 42 cents/share (vs. 40 cents), and gross merchandise volume rose 32% to $115.57B.
- Through partnerships with OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft, Shopify helped platform retailers reach customers via AI chatbots and search queries, with AI-driven customer traffic and orders both tripling in Q2.
- Sidekick, Shopify's AI assistant for merchants, saw daily active merchants surge 3.6x year-over-year, with President Harley Finkelstein noting AI search is especially helpful to smaller brands that make up the majority of Shopify's merchant base.
- Despite the AI tailwind, rising AI token and cloud infrastructure costs sparked margin concerns, and the stock remained down 23.4% year-to-date through the prior close.
- Jefferies analyst Samad Samana said the guidance left no doubt about growth durability in the second half and commitment to margin expansion even with AI investments.
Why it matters: Shopify just reframed AI from competitive threat to growth engine, with a Q3 guide roughly 7 percentage points above consensus and triple-digit growth in AI-driven traffic, showing its OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft integrations are monetizing. The 18% rally partially claws back a 23.4% YTD decline, but ballooning AI infrastructure costs remain the unresolved margin question for investors.
