Qualcomm Forecast Misses as iPhone Share Drops
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- Qualcomm forecast Q4 adjusted profit of $2.05-$2.25 per share, below Wall Street estimates of $2.36, while guiding revenue to $9.7B-$10.5B versus $10.02B expected
- Apple revenue will decline faster into Q4 than expected as supply constraints cut Qualcomm's iPhone component share "well below" its earlier 20% estimate, CEO Cristiano Amon told Reuters
- Qualcomm will raise prices beginning September 1 to offset rising memory and supply-chain costs, though Amon warned of a "slight decline temporarily in gross margin"
- Handset chip revenue fell 20% to $5.09 billion in Q3 and total revenue dropped 4% to $9.95 billion, exposing smartphone margin pressure as Android buyers shifted toward cheaper models
- Amon framed the pivot bluntly: "we kind of replaced Apple with the data center," as Qualcomm targets $5B in AI data-center chip revenue by fiscal 2027 and $15B by 2029
- Seaport analyst Jay Goldberg said Qualcomm has "lost focus on its core mobile market," with shares dropping more than 3% in extended trading and lagging peers — up just 1.14% versus Nvidia's 11.46%, AMD's 161.79% and Intel's 317.31% over the charted period
Why it matters: Qualcomm told investors its iPhone component share is now "well below" its earlier 20% estimate — a sharper erosion in its largest revenue relationship than analysts had priced in. With CEO Amon explicitly pivoting toward AI data-center chips, Qualcomm's near-term profitability takes a measurable hit before the $5 billion diversification target by fiscal 2027 fully materializes.
