Nvidia Stock Drops 15%, Micron Nearly Triples
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- Nvidia stock has fallen 15% since its May peak even as projected revenue continues to grow, leaving the company cheaper than the S&P average on a price-to-projected-earnings basis
- Micron has nearly tripled in value over the same period, as money flowing into AI infrastructure increasingly tilts toward memory rather than GPU suppliers
- H100 GPU compute spot prices peaked around $3.20 per hour in May and have steadily declined since, tracking Nvidia's stock trajectory downward
- Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and OpenAI have launched custom processors to reduce dependence on Nvidia, driving compute prices lower even though their chips trail Nvidia's latest hardware, per Ornn CTO Wayne Nelms
- DRAM spot prices have risen roughly tenfold over the past year because demand outpaces supply scaling, and "no one is making their own DRAM" to compete with memory specialists
- The mid-2025 memory surge reflects the industry underestimating data center memory needs rather than any technological breakthrough in high-bandwidth memory chips
- Nvidia's CUDA platform and the rapid pace of its GPU development remain genuinely impressive technological accomplishments even as the company faces commoditization pressure
Why it matters: Nvidia proved how valuable AI compute could be, then watched its largest customers build competing silicon — Google's, Amazon's, Microsoft's, and OpenAI's custom chips now suppress H100 hourly rates from the $3.20 May peak. With DRAM prices up tenfold and no memory competitors emerging, AI infrastructure economics are pivoting from Nvidia's GPUs to Micron and its cohort, squeezing Nvidia's margins despite growing revenue.
