Australia Can Learn From Iran's Undefeated War
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- David Kilcullen, a UNSW professor, argues Iran stayed in control of its territory and population after roughly four months of war with Israel and the US, despite many senior leaders being killed
- Iran's 'mosaic defense' automatically delegated military authority to 31 regional commanders with pre-approved target lists, allowing the country to keep fighting after US-Israeli 'decapitation strikes' killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the war's first day
- Iran's proxy 'axis of resistance' — Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi Shia militias — created asymmetric deterrence that deterred direct attacks on Tehran for decades before the war
- Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz within a week of war breaking out, holding a chunk of global energy sea traffic at risk to create leverage for peace talks
- Iran's military fielded 340,000 regular armed forces, around 120,000 IRGC members, and roughly 600,000 Basij militia, providing a mobilization base the author says Australia lacks
- Iran's regional relationships with Pakistan and Oman paid off during the war — both hosted negotiations and played restraining roles, and several neighbors refused to let Israeli or US aircraft use their bases or airspace
- Australia's Defense Strategic Review cut armored forces to a point where the country can sustain only one limited combat deployment, and Australian Defense Force reserves remain far smaller than needed for wartime mobilization, per Kilcullen
Why it matters: Australia has prioritized high-tech, low-quantity forces in recent reviews, but Iran's war shows decentralized command, hardened dispersed industry, and large reserves — not just advanced tech — are what kept its regime fighting through decapitation strikes. The gap between Australia's current posture and the lessons Kilcullen draws could reshape how Canberra plans for major conflict, including reserve size, command structure, and stockpiles of low-cost drones and missiles.
Ask SkimNews
