Bessent sees GDP growth booming again this year. Kalshi traders see little chance of that
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- Scott Bessent told CNBC's "Squawk Box" the U.S. economy can post 3% GDP growth in 2025, saying "We can have something with a three in front of it this year" and citing the "underlying economy has been strong."
- Bessent tied his optimism to new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, saying Warsh will "satisfy the inflation and the growth mandate."
- Kalshi traders give just 14.2% odds that 2026 GDP growth lands in the 2.6%-3.0% range, assigning higher probability to a 2.1%-2.5% outcome.
- Consumer prices rose 0.5% seasonally adjusted from April to May, with annual inflation hitting 4.2% — the largest year-over-year gain in three years, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- U.S. GDP grew 1.6% in Q1 2025 after 0.5% annual growth in Q4 2024, with full-year 2025 coming in at 2.1%.
- Bessent reiterated his "3-3-3" plan: 3% GDP growth, a 3% budget deficit-to-GDP ratio by 2028, and 3 million additional barrels of oil production per day.
- Kalshi traders see only a 13% chance the federal deficit-to-GDP ratio falls below 5% in fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Bessent's 3% GDP pitch runs into a prediction market pricing in continued sub-3% growth, and against a 4.2% inflation print that complicates the Fed's dual mandate. With Q1 2025 GDP at 1.6% and Kalshi traders favoring 2.1%-2.5% for the year, Bessent's 3-3-3 plan looks more like an aspiration than a base case — a credibility gap that matters if markets and voters anchor to the softer Kalshi numbers.
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