Heat pump shipments rise through April, with more use for both heating and cooling
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- AHRI reported combined central AC and air-source heat pump shipments rose 5.1% year over year in April to 837,098 units, with air-source heat pumps alone up 1.8% to 380,888 units.
- Heat pump year-to-date shipments climbed 1.2% to over 1.3 million units, even as combined AC-plus-heat-pump volume fell 3.5% in the first four months versus 2025.
- Gas warm air furnace shipments dropped 11.6% year to date through April to 966,919 units, down from 1,093,683 a year earlier, while oil warm air furnace shipments rose 11.4% YTD.
- Commercial gas storage water heaters bucked the broader downturn, rising 10.4% YoY in April and 4.7% YTD.
- The U.S. Supreme Court on June 8 remanded a case challenging DOE efficiency rules that would effectively eliminate non-condensing gas furnaces and commercial gas water heaters, siding with the Trump administration and gas-sector interests.
- Ian Shapiro of Syracuse University said modern variable-speed heat pumps can heat any U.S. building with no backup, while Greg Asbaty of Mitsubishi Electric Trane HVAC US said units operate down to negative 20°F with built-in defrost.
Why it matters: The 1.2% YTD gain in heat pumps against an 11.6% YTD collapse in gas furnace shipments shows residential electrification continuing despite softer overall HVAC demand. The Supreme Court's June 8 remand of the DOE gas-appliance efficiency rules will delay but, per ASAP, likely not derail the phaseout — keeping heat pump momentum intact while commercial gas water heaters still find a market.
