Model Pegs Nabers, Cook as 2026 Fantasy Football Busts
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- SportsLine's model simulated the 2026 NFL season 10,000 times and flagged Malik Nabers as a fantasy bust, ranking him outside the top-15 receivers despite an ADP around pick No. 35, with DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins and Zay Flowers all ranked above him.
- Nabers is not a lock for the start of the 2026 season after tearing his ACL last year and undergoing a follow-up spring procedure, and the Giants are expected to lean on the run game under new offensive coordinator Matt Nagy.
- James Cook drew the same bust label, with the model ranking him RB No. 10 behind Derrick Henry and Chase Brown despite an ADP around No. 12 overall, citing a higher fumble rate, weak pass-game usage and Josh Allen's touchdown-vulture role.
- SportsLine's model predicted Terry McLaurin's 2025 decline accurately — he fell from a career-high 13 touchdown catches and roughly 1,100 receiving yards to career lows of 582 yards and 3 TDs, with per-game averages dropping even before injuries.
- The model has a multi-year fantasy track record, including nailing Jonathan Taylor's 2021 breakout, correctly predicting C.J. Stroud's 2024 regression, and flagging A.J. Brown (2020), Derrick Henry (2019), Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara (2018), and Davante Adams (2017) as sleepers.
- SportsLine is also fading one of the first five receivers taken in early 2026 drafts, ranking him barely inside the top 10 as its biggest bust call — but the player's identity is held behind the paywall.
- Early 2026 PPR ADPs (via CBS) have Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.48, Bijan Robinson at 1.87, Ja'Marr Chase at 4.04, Puka Nacua at 4.59 and Jonathan Taylor at 5.54 as the top five picks.
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters who anchor on early ADPs risk burning second- and third-round picks on Nabers (ADP ~35) and Cook (ADP ~12) before the Sept. 9 season opener, giving up a round of value on a model that already nailed last year's biggest receiver disappointment.
Ask SkimNews
