The bust case for every first-round Fantasy Football draft pick: You may want to think twice about these picks
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- 2025 bust record: Five of the top-12 CBS Sports ADP players—Saquon Barkley (No. 3 → RB15), Justin Jefferson (No. 5 → WR32), CeeDee Lamb (No. 6 → WR12), Ashton Jeanty (No. 10 → RB16), and Malik Nabers (No. 11 → WR14 in four games)—fell short, with Lamb losing three games to a high-ankle sprain and Nabers suffering a torn ACL.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 1 ADP) faces a revamped Detroit offensive line (Penei Sewell moved to left tackle, rookie Blake Miller likely at right tackle, Cade Mays replacing Frank Ragnow at center) and a new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, whose Cardinals ranked No. 31 in rushing yards in 2025.
- Bijan Robinson (No. 2 ADP) could see fewer targets under new coach Kevin Stefanski, whose top Browns back averaged just 44.7 targets per year since 2020, though expected QB Tua Tagovailoa ranks No. 2 in the NFL at a 24.5% target rate to running backs over the past two seasons.
- Ja'Marr Chase (No. 3 ADP) is tethered to Joe Burrow's health—Ch Chase averaged 20.1 PPR points per game with Burrow in 2025 but 12.2 PPR points without him in 2023—with Joe Flacco (21.5 PPR across five 2025 starts) serving as the backup plan.
- Puka Nacua (No. 4 ADP) comes off a career-best 129 catches for 1,715 yards and 10 touchdowns but checked into a rehab facility in March and faces a civil lawsuit from a Dec. 31, 2025 incident, plus potential offensive regression after the Rams added Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie to their defense.
- Jeanty outlook: The analyst is buying back in on Ashton Jeanty as early as No. 12 overall this year after the Raiders hired coach Klint Kubiak, added center Tyler Linderbaum, and upgraded at quarterback with Fernando Mendoza and Kirk Cousins.
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters heading into 2026 face five marquee first-round talents whose round-1 price tags carry real downside risk—Gibbs needs to clear a 320-touch ceiling, Robinson must overcome a coaching scheme that historically limits backfield targets, Chase's production swings 8+ PPR points based on Burrow's health, and Nacua's off-field distractions and a tougher Rams defense could cap his ceiling.
