Dave Richard's 12 players to avoid will save your 2026 Fantasy Football season: Do not draft these busts!
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- Dave Richard published his 2026 busts list, a methodology grounded in Average Draft Position value, noting that last year's list correctly flagged Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, Travis Kelce, Terry McLaurin, and D.J. Moore as overvalued picks.
- Christian McCaffrey is the top bust candidate because he's a 30-year-old running back coming off a 450-touch season with declining rushing efficiency, and the 49ers have hinted at trimming his workload; Richard won't draft him sooner than ninth overall.
- Breece Hall is flagged as a Round 3-4 bust under the Jets' Aaron Glenn regime, which plans to use three running backs, and new playcaller Frank Reich has produced only four 13-plus PPR running backs across 10 seasons.
- Zay Flowers makes Richard's bust list for a third straight year because the Ravens' new offense under Declan Doyle is expected to lean on tight ends and physical receivers, limiting Flowers' target share despite his talent.
- Malik Nabers is a bust risk due to uncertainty over his recovery from ACL and meniscus surgery, and his move to a run-heavy Giants offense could make him a second-half asset rather than a Round 4-5 draft pick.
- Davante Adams is flagged at age 34 because his 14 touchdowns in 2025 accounted for 37.7% of his PPR points — an unsustainable rate as the Rams lean into the run game and multiple tight-end personnel groupings.
- Jameson Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. are both busts for similar reasons: Williams' targets drop to 4.8 per game when Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are healthy, and Harrison has yet to average seven targets per game while struggling with contested catches and press coverage.
- Jaylen Warren is a bust because in the Steelers' backfield, Rico Dowdle's 75% goal-line success rate (vs. Warren's 28.6%) could cap Warren's scoring, making Dowdle the better late-round target in Mike McCarthy's offense.
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters who heed Richard's ADP-based bust list can avoid overspending on players whose end-of-season production will lag their draft cost, redirecting early picks toward higher-value positions. For the 12 flagged players, the bust designation is tied to specific team-level concerns — coaching changes, scheme fits, and target competition — meaning their fantasy value hinges on factors drafters can evaluate before August.
