The bust case for every first-round Fantasy Football draft pick: You may want to think twice about these picks
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- Five 2025 first-round picks flopped, with Saquon Barkley (No. 3 overall ADP, finished RB15), Justin Jefferson (No. 5, WR32), CeeDee Lamb (No. 6, WR12), Ashton Jeanty (No. 10, RB16), and Malik Nabers (No. 11, WR14) all failing to return first-round value after being drafted in the top 12.
- Jahmyr Gibbs, the consensus No. 1 pick for 2026, faces uncertainty from a revamped Lions offensive line — Penei Sewell shifting to left tackle, rookie Blake Miller at right tackle, and Cade Mays replacing Frank Ragnow at center — and new OC Drew Petzing, whose Cardinals ranked No. 31 in rushing yards last season.
- Bijan Robinson at No. 2 ADP carries concern that new Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski hasn't had a No. 1 running back exceed 63 targets in a season since 2020, averaging just 44.7 targets per year to lead backs during his Browns tenure.
- Ja'Marr Chase at No. 3 ADP is heavily dependent on Joe Burrow's health, averaging 20.1 PPR with Burrow last year but 12.2 PPR in six games without him in 2023; backup Joe Flacco provided a safety net with 21.5 PPR over five Chase games in 2025.
- Puka Nacua at No. 4 ADP is flagged for offseason distractions — a March rehab stint and a civil lawsuit from a Dec. 31, 2025 incident — plus a Rams defense strengthened by Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie that could reduce the shootouts fueling Nacua's career-best 23.4 PPR per game in 2025.
- Ashton Jeanty gets a buy-back endorsement despite his rookie bust, with the Raiders adding coach Klint Kubiak, center Tyler Linderbaum, and quarterbacks Fernando Mendoza and Kirk Cousins, prompting the analyst to draft him as early as No. 12 overall in 2026.
Why it matters: Five of last year's top-12 fantasy picks became outright busts, meaning drafters who didn't pivot paid a heavy price in standings. With the 2026 first round loaded with players carrying real concerns — Gibbs's new offensive line, Robinson's target-sharing risk under Stefanski, Chase's Burrow dependency, and Nacua's offseason — even consensus top picks are not safe-money bets at their current ADP slots.
