Fantasy football rankings 2026: Busts and riskiest picks by model that called McLaurin's poor season — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model simulated the 2026 NFL season 10,000 times and flagged James Cook and David Montgomery as fantasy football busts in its latest rankings and cheat sheets.
- James Cook carries an ADP around pick No. 10 overall — the fifth running back off the board — but the model ranks him RB10, citing an elevated fumble rate last season, limited work as a receiver, and Josh Allen as a Buffalo touchdown vulture.
- David Montgomery, 29, left Detroit for Houston and is being drafted around pick No. 51, yet the model slots him in the same tier as late-round backs Jaylen Warren, Jadarian Price, and 10th-rounder Kenneth Gainwell because he's splitting snaps with rookie Woody Marks (900+ scrimmage yards in 2025).
- Terry McLaurin cratered from roughly 1,100 receiving yards and a career-high 13 TDs to career lows of 582 yards and 3 TDs in 2025 — a downturn the model had predicted by ranking him well below his top-50 ADP.
- The same model previously identified A.J. Brown as a 2020 sleeper, called Derrick Henry's 2019 breakout, nailed Jonathan Taylor's 2021 monster season, and correctly predicted C.J. Stroud's 2024 step-back.
- Top 12 CBS PPR ADP: Jahmyr Gibbs (1.13), Bijan Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase, Jonathan Taylor, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown, James Cook (9.33), De'Von Achane (12.12), Chase Brown (12.21), Derrick Henry (13.67).
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters following CBS's consensus PPR board could burn a first-round pick on James Cook when the model — which correctly dodged McLaurin's 582-yard disaster — says he's a mid-second-round back at best. Steering clear of Cook and Montgomery based on the 10,000-simulation output could be the swing between a playoff roster and a wasted season for any manager drafting in the next nine days.
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