Fantasy football rankings 2026: Busts, riskiest picks by model that was all over McLaurin's tough year — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model simulated the 2026 NFL season 10,000 times and released fantasy football rankings calling out busts, sleepers, and breakouts ahead of kickoff two days away.
- David Montgomery is flagged as a bust after moving from Detroit's high-volume offense to Houston, where he's projected to split snaps with rookie Woody Marks; ADP has him at pick No. 52, but the model ranks him in the same tier as later-round backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell.
- James Cook is being drafted around No. 9 overall (fifth RB off the board) yet the model slots him at RB10, behind Derrick Henry and Chase Brown, citing his elevated fumble rate, lack of elite receiving work, and Josh Allen as a touchdown vulture in Buffalo's offense.
- Terry McLaurin finished 2025 with career lows of 582 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns — a steep drop from his prior 1,100-yard, 13-TD season — exactly as the model had predicted by tagging him as a top-50 ADP bust a year ago.
- The model correctly called A.J. Brown as a 2020 sleeper, Jonathan Taylor's 2021 breakout, and C.J. Stroud's 2024 step-back, and is now fading one of the first six receivers drafted in 2026, ranking him barely inside the top 10.
- Last season's notable busts included Lamar Jackson, Ashton Jeanty, Justin Jefferson, and Mark Andrews, who left gaping holes in fantasy lineups due to injuries or lack of production.
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters relying on consensus ADP could overpay for James Cook (top-9 pick vs. model's RB10 ranking) and David Montgomery (fourth-fifth round vs. model's late-round tier), potentially wasting high-value picks on backs whose production the model projects to fall short.
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